The Claims · Open · 28 sessions to 30 Nov · A 14.81 close on 28 percent advancing is quiet, not a close above 18.
The gold / real-yield link does not come back
The 60-session correlation of gold daily returns vs 10Y TIPS daily changes does not print below −0.50 for 20 consecutive sessions before 30 Nov 2026.
- Resolves by
- 30 Nov 2026
- Confirm
- The correlation never holds below −0.50 for 20 sessions.
- Kill
- It does, the textbook is back, and Friday was positioning.
- Void
- TIPS10Y series unavailable for more than 10 sessions, state it, don’t grade.
- Grade
- Daily check, graded 1 Dec.
TIPS10Y is FRED DFII10 on the owned strip. The live 60-session gold/TIPS Pearson and the −0.50 streak print on the grade note.
Series · Close Fri 16 Oct
Gold
4,196.8+0.38% · 19 Oct
10Y TIPS (FRED DFII10) last close
2.62%−6 bp · 2026-09-21
60-session Pearson XAU vs TIPS10Y
-0.232026-09-21 · n=428 aligned · window 60 · streak −120
Grade
Open. Live 60-session corr(gold, ΔTIPS) -0.23 through 21 Sep 2026. Consecutive sessions below −0.50: 0 (needs 20 to kill). Max streak in the last 120 windows: 0. Graded 1 Dec.