Analytics24
3 September
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Hypotheses · Open · Decides 30 Sep 2026 · Ex-US value is cheap for a reason

Half the discount is sector mix

When Analytics24 publishes the sector-adjusted forward P/E gap (by 30 Sep 2026), it is less than 50% of the headline gap.

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Resolves by
30 Sep 2026
Confirm
Adjusted gap < 0.5 × headline.
Kill
Adjusted ≥ 0.5 × headline, the discount is mostly geographic, not compositional.
Grade
Desk, on publication of the adjusted gap with its method note.

This one grades the framing, not the market.

Grade

Open. Resolves by 30 Sep 2026. Blocked: series not wired; grades by the published desk rule when the source publishes.

Related writing

No article rides on this one yet.

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