The Claims · Open · 28 sessions to 30 Nov · The dollar index printed 99.16 and the ex-US discount stayed open
Soft-dollar days produce dispersion, not a basket bid
From 22 Aug to 30 Nov 2026, on sessions where the dollar index falls more than 0.5%, the cross-sectional standard deviation of daily returns across Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng exceeds its trailing-250-session median on more than half of those sessions.
- Resolves by
- 30 Nov 2026
- Confirm
- More than 50% of soft-dollar sessions show above-median dispersion.
- Kill
- 50% or fewer, the basket is bidding as a basket; “ex-US” is a trade after all.
- Void
- Fewer than 8 qualifying sessions in the window.
- Grade
- 1 Dec. Needs stored daily closes; the same-session tile is live today.
Series · Close Fri 16 Oct
Euro Stoxx 50
6,204.2+0.58%
FTSE 100
10,796.3−0.79% · 19 Oct
Nikkei 225
64,916.7−0.62% · 19 Oct
Hang Seng
24,186.8+0.52%
Dollar index
101.97+0.13% · 19 Oct
Grade
Open. 1 qualifying soft-dollar session (DXY down > 0.5%) since 22 Aug 2026: 3 Sep 2026 dispersion 1.40 above the trailing 250-session median of 0.66; needs 8 by 30 Nov. Counted from sealed cash closes.