Hypotheses · Open · Decides 30 Nov 2026 · Ex-US value is cheap for a reason
Soft-dollar days produce dispersion, not a basket bid
From 22 Aug to 30 Nov 2026, on sessions where the dollar index falls more than 0.5%, the cross-sectional standard deviation of daily returns across Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng exceeds its trailing-250-session median on more than half of those sessions.
- Resolves by
- 30 Nov 2026
- Confirm
- More than 50% of soft-dollar sessions show above-median dispersion.
- Kill
- 50% or fewer, the basket is bidding as a basket; “ex-US” is a trade after all.
- Void
- Fewer than 8 qualifying sessions in the window.
- Grade
- Engine, 1 Dec. Needs stored daily closes; the same-session tile is live today.
Series · Close Thu 3 Sep
Euro Stoxx 50
6,382.6+0.32%
FTSE 100
10,831.5+0.70%
Nikkei 225
64,796.3+0.91%
Hang Seng
25,752.9+2.14%
Dollar index
99.00+0.01%
Grade
Open. 0 qualifying soft-dollar sessions (DXY down > 0.5%) since 22 Aug 2026; needs 8 by 30 Nov. Counted from the owned strip.