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3 September
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S&P7,747.7+1.06%
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Markets
Hypotheses · Open · Decides 30 Nov 2026 · GLP-1s and the food chain

Staples outperform on risk-off sessions and underperform across the quarter

From 22 Aug to 30 Nov 2026, Consumer Staples outperforms the S&P 500 on sessions where the S&P closes down more than 1%, and underperforms it over the full window.

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Resolves by
30 Nov 2026
Confirm
Both legs true.
Kill
Staples outperform over the full window, the market is paying for calories, not hiding in them.
Void
Fewer than 5 sessions with the S&P down more than 1% in the window.
Grade
Engine, on the 30 Nov closes, from the owned XLP and S&P daily series.
Series · Close Thu 3 Sep
Cons. Staples (XLP) last close

85.99+0.79% · 2026-08-21

S&P 500

7,747.7+1.06%

Cons. Staples (sector, day)

+0.21%

Grade

Open. Resolves by 30 Nov 2026. Both legs live on the owned strip: baseline is the 21 Aug 2026 close (XLP 85.99, S&P 7674.4); no window session has printed yet. Needs 5 sessions with the S&P down more than 1% to avoid a void.

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