Hypotheses · Open · Decides 31 Dec 2026 · Ex-US value is cheap for a reason
Unhedged beats hedged into year-end
If the dollar index closes 31 Dec 2026 below its 22 Aug close, unhedged ex-US equity exposure outperforms hedged over the window by more than the carry differential.
- Resolves by
- 31 Dec 2026
- Confirm
- Unhedged > hedged + carry.
- Kill
- Hedged ≥ unhedged despite a weaker dollar, FX isn’t the mechanism.
- Void
- The dollar closes higher, condition not met, no grade.
- Grade
- Engine. EFA vs HEFA from the 22 Aug close to the 31 Dec close, void if DXY closes higher. Trailing 60-session tile is a prior, not this grade.
Pair is on the owned strip. No year-end window close yet (last strip session 21 Aug).
Series · Close Thu 3 Sep
Dollar index
99.00+0.01%
MSCI EAFE (EFA) last close
108.2+0.83% · 2026-08-21
Hedged EAFE (HEFA) last close
47.25+0.70% · 2026-08-21
Hedged vs unhedged ex-US, 60d
−0.17 ppEFA +3.31% / HEFA +3.48% · 2026-05-27–2026-08-21
Grade
Open. Resolves by 31 Dec 2026. Grades from the stated sources when the window ends.