The Claims · Open · 50 sessions to 31 Dec · The dollar index printed 99.16 and the ex-US discount stayed open
Unhedged beats hedged into year-end
If the dollar index closes 31 Dec 2026 below its 22 Aug close, unhedged ex-US equity exposure outperforms hedged over the window by more than the carry differential.
- Resolves by
- 31 Dec 2026
- Confirm
- Unhedged > hedged + carry.
- Kill
- Hedged ≥ unhedged despite a weaker dollar, FX isn’t the mechanism.
- Void
- The dollar closes higher, condition not met, no grade.
- Grade
- EFA vs HEFA from the 22 Aug close to the 31 Dec close, void if DXY closes higher. Trailing 60-session tile is a prior, not this grade.
EFA and HEFA stay on the owned strip. The dollar leg follows the sealed cash close.
Series · Close Fri 16 Oct
Dollar index
101.97+0.13% · 19 Oct
MSCI EAFE (EFA) last close
105.6+1.01% · 2026-09-25
Hedged EAFE (HEFA) last close
46.97+0.64% · 2026-09-25
Hedged vs unhedged ex-US, 60d
+1.80 ppEFA +2.47% / HEFA +0.66% · 2026-07-01–2026-09-25
Grade
Open. The dollar index is 102.06 on 7 Oct 2026, +3.3% from the 21 Aug 2026 close of 98.80. A higher dollar at year-end voids the test. EFA and HEFA still end 25 Sep 2026.