The Claims · Open · no dated clock · The dollar index printed 99.16 and the ex-US discount stayed open
The ex-US discount only closes on a weak dollar
Any five-point narrowing of the US vs ex-US forward P/E gap coincides with the dollar index at least 4% below its 200-day average. No sustained narrowing happens against a strong dollar.
Series · Close Fri 16 Oct
Dollar index
101.97+0.13% · 19 Oct
Dollar index vs 200-day, %
+2.75%102.1 vs 99.33 · 2026-10-07 · streak ≤ −4%: 0
US vs ex-US forward P/E gap
4.8 ptsUSA 20.37 / EAFE 15.53 · 31 Jul 2026
Grade
Open. The dollar index is 102.06 on 7 Oct 2026, 2.8% above its 200-day average of 99.33. The weak-dollar bar is 4% below that average. The forward P/E gap stays unwired, so this claim stays blocked.