Hypotheses · Open · Decides 30 Nov 2026 · Power is the AI bottleneck
Utilities trade with Tech, not with rates
From 22 Aug to 30 Nov 2026, the 60-day correlation of Utilities daily returns with Tech exceeds the 60-day correlation of Utilities with the inverse of the 10Y yield change, on the final session.
- Resolves by
- 30 Nov 2026
- Confirm
- corr(Utilities, Tech) > corr(Utilities, −Δ10Y) on 30 Nov.
- Kill
- The reverse, utilities are a rates trade again and the “AI power” ownership has left.
- Grade
- Engine, 1 Dec. Needs the corr_compare rule and stored daily closes.
Series · Close Thu 3 Sep
Utilities (sector, day)
−0.74%
Technology (sector, day)
−2.71%
US 10Y
4.76%−3 bp
Utilities (XLU) last close
42.77−2.28% · 2026-08-21
Technology (XLK) last close
183.3+0.11% · 2026-08-21
60-session Pearson XLU vs XLK
-0.252026-08-21 · n=1254 aligned · window 60 · streak −58
60-session Pearson XLU vs US10Y
-0.172026-08-21 · n=1254 aligned · window 60 · streak −120
Grade
Open. Live from the owned strip through 21 Aug 2026: 60-session corr(XLU, XLK) -0.25 vs corr(XLU, −Δ10Y) 0.17. Graded on the 30 Nov session.