The Claims · Open · 28 sessions to 30 Nov · GE Vernova turbine slots are booked years past the next Nvidia cycle
Utilities trade with Tech, not with rates
From 22 Aug to 30 Nov 2026, the 60-day correlation of Utilities daily returns with Tech exceeds the 60-day correlation of Utilities with the inverse of the 10Y yield change, on the final session.
- Resolves by
- 30 Nov 2026
- Confirm
- corr(Utilities, Tech) > corr(Utilities, −Δ10Y) on 30 Nov.
- Kill
- The reverse, utilities are a rates trade again and the “AI power” ownership has left.
- Grade
- 1 Dec. Needs the corr_compare rule and stored daily closes.
Series · Close Fri 16 Oct
Utilities (sector, five-day)
+2.28%
Technology (sector, five-day)
−7.80%
US 10Y
5.10%+1 bp
Utilities (XLU) last close
39.83+0.38% · 2026-10-02
Technology (XLK) last close
198.8+0.51% · 2026-10-09
60-session Pearson XLU vs XLK
0.052026-10-02 · n=1283 aligned · window 60 · streak +3
60-session Pearson XLU vs US10Y
-0.242026-09-28 · n=1279 aligned · window 60 · streak −120
Grade
Open. From the owned strip through 2 Oct 2026: 60-session corr(XLU, XLK) 0.05 vs corr(XLU, −Δ10Y) 0.25. Graded on the 30 Nov session.
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