Hypotheses · Open · Decides 31 Dec 2026 · Abundance still has a power bill
Semis keep beating software into year-end
The semiconductor index outperforms the software index from 22 Aug to 31 Dec 2026.
- Resolves by
- 31 Dec 2026
- Confirm
- Semis ahead over the window.
- Kill
- Software ahead, the market is rotating to the application layer ahead of the margin data.
- Grade
- Engine, on the 31 Dec closes, from the owned SOX and IGV daily series.
Series · Close Thu 3 Sep
PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) last close
11740.4−0.51% · 2026-08-21
Software (IGV) last close
103.4+1.43% · 2026-08-21
60-session Pearson SOX vs IGV
0.062026-08-21 · n=1254 aligned · window 60 · streak +14
250-session Pearson SOX vs IGV
0.192026-08-21 · n=1254 aligned · window 250 · streak +120
Semis vs software, 250d
+107.83 ppSOX +104.02% / IGV −3.81% · 2025-08-22–2026-08-21
Grade
Open. Resolves by 31 Dec 2026. Both legs live on the owned strip: baseline is the 21 Aug 2026 close (SOX 11740.4, IGV 103.37); no window session has printed yet.