Analytics24
3 September
My list
S&P7,747.7+1.06%
Nasdaq29,482.3+1.16%Stoxx6,382.6+0.32%FTSE10,831.5+0.70%Nikkei64,796.3+0.91%Hang Seng25,752.9+2.14%DXY99.00+0.01%EUR/USD1.1627+0.36%USD/JPY156.38−1.60%GBP/USD1.3527+0.32%Gold4,519.1+0.61%Silver67.37+0.59%WTI91.95+0.71%Brent95.89+0.39%10Y4.76%−3 bpVIX14.32−5.79%S&P7,747.7+1.06%Nasdaq29,482.3+1.16%Stoxx6,382.6+0.32%FTSE10,831.5+0.70%Nikkei64,796.3+0.91%Hang Seng25,752.9+2.14%DXY99.00+0.01%EUR/USD1.1627+0.36%USD/JPY156.38−1.60%GBP/USD1.3527+0.32%Gold4,519.1+0.61%Silver67.37+0.59%WTI91.95+0.71%Brent95.89+0.39%10Y4.76%−3 bpVIX14.32−5.79%S&P7,747.7+1.06%
Markets

Hypotheses

Hypotheses

Friday 4 September · London & New York

Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.

A cable reel on a quay in morning light.
Cable reel on the quay.

Thesis

Can Iceland's power leave the island?

Can Iceland's power leave the island?

Resolved

What already closed.

Nothing has closed yet.

The first claims were published on 22 August 2026. The gold and volatility test is due on 4 September 2026.