S&P7,659.4−1.11%16 Oct

Nasdaq29,187.6−2.53%16 OctStoxx6,204.2+0.58%16 OctFTSE10,796.3−0.79%Nikkei64,916.7−0.62%Hang Seng24,186.8+0.52%16 Oct10Y5.10%+1 bp16 OctS&P7,659.4−1.11%16 OctNasdaq29,187.6−2.53%16 OctStoxx6,204.2+0.58%16 OctFTSE10,796.3−0.79%Nikkei64,916.7−0.62%Hang Seng24,186.8+0.52%16 Oct10Y5.10%+1 bp16 OctS&P7,659.4−1.11%16 Oct

The Claims

19 October · London & New York

Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.

Wet lock gates and a bollard in overcast daylight. — A wet bollard stands on the lock wall. The gates sit half open.

Thesis

Ships wait because Gatun is the tank, and a dry year is a draft notice

Does the canal have enough water?

301 sessions to 31 DecA year without a draft cutThe Panama Canal authority posts a full year with no draft restriction through 31 Dec 2027.Open.

Resolved

What already closed.

Resolved: false · 26 Aug 2026SJM guides volume flat-to-down and price holdsFalse: Volume/mix > 0 with price also positive, demand is fine, the theme is early. Source: SEC Exhibit 99.1, 8-K filed 26 Aug 2026 (0000091419-26-000079) (26 Aug 2026). Volume/mix: company +1 pp; US Retail Coffee +2, Frozen Handheld +1, Pet Foods +1, Sweet Baked Snacks -8. Net price +4 pp at the company. US Retail Coffee printed +10 pp price with +2 volume/mix. FY27 guide is sales -1 to -2 percent on lower price and neutral volume/mix, not growth from price.