The Claims
19 October · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
The dollar index printed 99.16 and the ex-US discount stayed open
Are non-US equities a bargain, or is the discount the correct price?
- clock 30 Sep expiredHalf the discount is sector mixWhen Analytics24 publishes the sector-adjusted forward P/E gap (by 30 Sep 2026), it is less than 50% of the headline gap.Open.
- 28 sessions to 30 NovSoft-dollar days produce dispersion, not a basket bidFrom 22 Aug to 30 Nov 2026, on sessions where the dollar index falls more than 0.5%, the cross-sectional standard deviation of daily returns across Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng exceeds its trailing-250-session median on more than half of those sessions.Open. 1 qualifying soft-dollar session (DXY down > 0.5%) since 22 Aug 2026: 3 Sep 2026 dispersion 1.40 above the trailing 250-session median of 0.66; needs 8 by 30 Nov. Counted from sealed cash closes.
- 50 sessions to 31 DecUnhedged beats hedged into year-endIf the dollar index closes 31 Dec 2026 below its 22 Aug close, unhedged ex-US equity exposure outperforms hedged over the window by more than the carry differential.Open. The dollar index is 102.06 on 7 Oct 2026, +3.3% from the 21 Aug 2026 close of 98.80. A higher dollar at year-end voids the test. EFA and HEFA still end 25 Sep 2026.
- no dated clockThe ex-US discount only closes on a weak dollarAny five-point narrowing of the US vs ex-US forward P/E gap coincides with the dollar index at least 4% below its 200-day average. No sustained narrowing happens against a strong dollar.Open. The dollar index is 102.06 on 7 Oct 2026, 2.8% above its 200-day average of 99.33. The weak-dollar bar is 4% below that average. The forward P/E gap stays unwired, so this claim stays blocked.
Resolved