Hypotheses
Hypotheses
Friday 4 September · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
Ex-US value is cheap for a reason
Are non-US equities a bargain, or is the discount the correct price?
- 17 sessions to 30 SepHalf the discount is sector mixWhen Analytics24 publishes the sector-adjusted forward P/E gap (by 30 Sep 2026), it is less than 50% of the headline gap.Open.
- 60 sessions to 30 NovSoft-dollar days produce dispersion, not a basket bidFrom 22 Aug to 30 Nov 2026, on sessions where the dollar index falls more than 0.5%, the cross-sectional standard deviation of daily returns across Euro Stoxx 50, FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and Hang Seng exceeds its trailing-250-session median on more than half of those sessions.Open. 0 qualifying soft-dollar sessions (DXY down > 0.5%) since 22 Aug 2026; needs 8 by 30 Nov. Counted from the owned strip.
- 83 sessions to 31 DecUnhedged beats hedged into year-endIf the dollar index closes 31 Dec 2026 below its 22 Aug close, unhedged ex-US equity exposure outperforms hedged over the window by more than the carry differential.Open. Grades from the stated sources when the window ends.
- no dated clockThe ex-US discount only closes on a weak dollarAny five-point narrowing of the US vs ex-US forward P/E gap coincides with the dollar index at least 4% below its 200-day average. No sustained narrowing happens against a strong dollar.Open. The DXY leg is live on the owned strip; the forward P/E gap series is not wired: blocked until it is. Cannot resolve and says so.
Resolved
What already closed.
Nothing has closed yet.
The first claims were published on 22 August 2026. The gold and volatility test is due on 4 September 2026.