Hypotheses
Hypotheses
Friday 4 September · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
Orbit is a shared yard
Is the night sky a zoned commons, or a filings market the FCC already said it does not police?
- 212 sessions to 30 JunEärendil puts a spot on dirtEärendil-1 is on orbit with a public, metered ground spot (named location, duration, brightness) by 30 Jun 2027.Open.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecThe next published clockA public CRASH Clock update (Boley / named successor, disclosed method) prints at or below 2.0 days by 31 Dec 2027, or lengthens back through 5 days.Open.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecThe million-sat file gets a sky condition — or does notBy 31 Dec 2027 the FCC has either denied SpaceX’s million-sat compute file, or granted it with optical / IR / radio / disposal conditions that withhold operations pending an astronomy assessment, or granted it with no such conditions.Open.
- 605 sessions to 31 DecA commercial scoop holds VLEOA Kreios (or named peer) air-breathing satellite holds 150–300 km for at least 30 days without a chemical dump, by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
- 605 sessions to 31 DecOtter breathes for a yearDARPA Otter (or the Redwire SabreSat air-breathing demonstration) is on orbit for more than one year with a public note that the intake produced usable thrust, by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
Resolved
What already closed.
Nothing has closed yet.
The first claims were published on 22 August 2026. The gold and volatility test is due on 4 September 2026.