Hypotheses
Hypotheses
Friday 4 September · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
The waste has to go somewhere
After tokens, watts, orbits, and appetite — where does the waste go?
- 83 sessions to 31 DecFoundayo is a named lineA Lilly quarter discloses Foundayo as a named revenue line, or a prescription run-rate in a filing, by 31 Dec 2026.Open.
- 212 sessions to 30 JunBellevue ships a lineupA named first medium-voltage lineup from Eaton’s Bellevue plant is disclosed by Eaton or a customer by 30 Jun 2027.Open.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecA hall names the pathA named U.S. or EMEA AI hall, in a company or operator notice, identifies a CoolChip-class or equivalent CDU and the heat-rejection path, by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecFigure writes another primaryA new Figure AI primary at or above the September 2025 post-money, with a named paying deployment larger than a pilot, prints by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 605 sessions to 31 DecButler adds GOES tonsCleveland-Cliffs discloses that the Butler induction line is complete and GOES shipments from that mill are up versus the 2026 baseline, by 31 Dec 2028.Open. Grades from the stated sources when the window ends.
- 605 sessions to 31 DecHefei ships a bushingHitachi discloses a first UHV bushing or tap-changer shipment from the 17 Aug 2026 Hefei spend by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
- 605 sessions to 31 DecThe kilogram gets an NDAA Phase 3 lean-mass preservation program (named antimyostatin or activin antibody plus an incretin) has an NDA or a pre-announced filing date by 31 Dec 2028.Open. Grades from the stated sources when the window ends.
- 865 sessions to 31 DecSouth Boston ships a nameplateA named large-power transformer from Hitachi’s South Boston expansion is disclosed by Hitachi or a customer by 31 Dec 2029.Open. Grades from the stated sources when the window ends.
Resolved
What already closed.
Nothing has closed yet.
The first claims were published on 22 August 2026. The gold and volatility test is due on 4 September 2026.