Hypotheses
Hypotheses
Friday 4 September · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
Abundance still has a power bill
Does AI create abundance, and who captures the value in shares?
- 60 sessions to 30 NovHosting cost rises as a share of revenue on the Q3 printsAcross the basket names that disclose hosting/infrastructure COGS, the revenue-weighted share rises YoY on the Q3 2026 prints.Open.
- 83 sessions to 31 DecThe price of frontier intelligence falls again this quarterThe flagship-tier API price per million output tokens, across the three largest providers (monthly), is lower on 31 Dec 2026 than on 30 Sep 2026 for at least two of the three.Open.
- 83 sessions to 31 DecSemis keep beating software into year-endThe semiconductor index outperforms the software index from 22 Aug to 31 Dec 2026.Open. Both legs live on the owned strip: baseline is the 21 Aug 2026 close (SOX 11740.4, IGV 103.37); no window session has printed yet.
- no dated clockThe software middle compressesAggregate gross margin across mid-market SaaS compresses by at least 300 basis points by end-2027, as inference cost lands in cost of goods faster than prices rise.Open.
Resolved
What already closed.
Nothing has closed yet.
The first claims were published on 22 August 2026. The gold and volatility test is due on 4 September 2026.