The Claims
19 October · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
Cheap tokens are not cheap power, and the bill is still a watt in the hall.
Does AI create abundance, and who captures the value in shares?
- 28 sessions to 30 NovHosting cost rises as a share of revenue on the Q3 printsAcross the basket names that disclose hosting/infrastructure COGS, the revenue-weighted share rises YoY on the Q3 2026 prints.Open.
- 50 sessions to 31 DecThe price of frontier intelligence falls again this quarterThe flagship-tier API price per million output tokens, across the three largest providers (monthly), is lower on 31 Dec 2026 than on 30 Sep 2026 for at least two of the three.Open.
- 50 sessions to 31 DecSemis keep beating software into year-endThe semiconductor index outperforms the software index from 22 Aug to 31 Dec 2026.Open. From the owned strip: SOX +7.9% vs IGV +2.6% since the 21 Aug 2026 close, through 25 Sep 2026. Graded on the 31 Dec 2026 closes.
- no dated clockThe software middle compressesAggregate gross margin across mid-market SaaS compresses by at least 300 basis points by end-2027, as inference cost lands in cost of goods faster than prices rise.Open.
Resolved