Hypotheses
Hypotheses
Friday 4 September · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
The next layer is still on the ground
Who owns the next compute layer when the hall is late — a radiator, a laser, or Virginia?
- 212 sessions to 30 JunA substitute fairing existsBy 30 Jun 2027 at least two of: Neutron flight 1; New Glenn return with a named commercial payload; a Vulcan Leo mission that puts Amazon past 500 operational sats; a publicly disclosed Falcon 9 rideshare opening for 2029 that is not a Starlink dump.Open.
- 212 sessions to 30 JunStarcloud-2 uses the landlord’s portStarcloud-2 is on orbit with Starlink Mini Lasers installed and a public note that traffic traversed the Starlink mesh, by 30 Jun 2027.Open.
- 212 sessions to 30 JunSuncatcher pair fliesTwo Google Suncatcher / Planet prototypes reach orbit by 30 Jun 2027.Open.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecKepler names a compute customerKepler discloses a paying hosted-compute or sovereign-cloud customer, contract plus notice that traffic is not only relay, by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecOrbital’s seed GPU fliesA named Orbital Compute (or successor) demonstration payload reaches orbit with a public note that a GPU ran, by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecAn 8 kW orbital node fliesAt least one Starcloud-2-class (≈8 kW) or peer orbital compute node reaches orbit by 31 Dec 2027.Open. Grades from the stated sources when the window ends.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecA Texas line releases a busA named Texas line (Starcloud plant or Gigasat) releases a flight-ready compute bus to a named manifest by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 605 sessions to 31 DecNo billed megawatt in orbit this decade’s first halfNo commercial orbital compute cluster ≥ 1 MW is billed to a named terrestrial AI customer by 31 Dec 2028.Open. Grades from the stated sources when the window ends.
- 605 sessions to 31 DecOverview puts a joule on a farmOverview Energy (or named successor) completes an in-space SBSP demo that meters energy onto a Meta-affiliated or named terrestrial array by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
- 605 sessions to 31 DecSpace-1 is a partA NVIDIA Space-1 Vera Rubin Module (or named NVL72-class space payload) reaches orbit with a company notice by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
- 605 sessions to 31 DecA SpaceX compute sat fliesSpaceX discloses a named orbital AI compute satellite on orbit, company notice, not a rendering, by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
- 865 sessions to 31 DecCowboy’s stage is a hallA 1 MW-class Cowboy (or named successor) upper-stage compute node reaches orbit by 31 Dec 2029.Open.
Resolved
What already closed.
Nothing has closed yet.
The first claims were published on 22 August 2026. The gold and volatility test is due on 4 September 2026.