The Claims
19 October · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
Two 8-kilowatt rideshares are not an 88,000-satellite file.
Who owns the next compute layer when the hall is late — a radiator, a laser, or Virginia?
- 173 sessions to 30 JunA substitute fairing existsBy 30 Jun 2027 at least two of: Neutron flight 1; New Glenn return with a named commercial payload; a Vulcan Leo mission that puts Amazon past 500 operational sats; a publicly disclosed Falcon 9 rideshare opening for 2029 that is not a Starlink dump.Open.
- 173 sessions to 30 JunStarcloud-2 uses the landlord’s portStarcloud-2 is on orbit with Starlink Mini Lasers installed and a public note that traffic traversed the Starlink mesh, by 30 Jun 2027.Open.
- 173 sessions to 30 JunSuncatcher pair fliesTwo Google Suncatcher / Planet prototypes reach orbit by 30 Jun 2027.Open.
- 301 sessions to 31 DecKepler names a compute customerKepler discloses a paying hosted-compute or sovereign-cloud customer, contract plus notice that traffic is not only relay, by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 301 sessions to 31 DecOrbital’s seed GPU fliesA named Orbital Compute (or successor) demonstration payload reaches orbit with a public note that a GPU ran, by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 301 sessions to 31 DecAn 8 kW orbital node fliesAt least one Starcloud-2-class (≈8 kW) or peer orbital compute node reaches orbit by 31 Dec 2027.Open. Grades from the stated sources when the window ends.
- 301 sessions to 31 DecA Texas line releases a busA named Texas line (Starcloud plant or Gigasat) releases a flight-ready compute bus to a named manifest by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 553 sessions to 31 DecNo billed megawatt in orbit this decade’s first halfNo commercial orbital compute cluster ≥ 1 MW is billed to a named terrestrial AI customer by 31 Dec 2028.Open. Grades from the stated sources when the window ends.
- 553 sessions to 31 DecOverview puts a joule on a farmOverview Energy (or named successor) completes an in-space SBSP demo that meters energy onto a Meta-affiliated or named terrestrial array by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
- 553 sessions to 31 DecSpace-1 is a partA NVIDIA Space-1 Vera Rubin Module (or named NVL72-class space payload) reaches orbit with a company notice by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
- 553 sessions to 31 DecA SpaceX compute sat fliesSpaceX discloses a named orbital AI compute satellite on orbit, company notice, not a rendering, by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
- 803 sessions to 31 DecCowboy’s stage is a hallA 1 MW-class Cowboy (or named successor) upper-stage compute node reaches orbit by 31 Dec 2029.Open.
Resolved