Hypotheses
Hypotheses
Friday 4 September · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
Power is the AI bottleneck
Is electricity, not silicon, the binding constraint on the AI buildout?
- 45 sessions to 7 NovEvery hyperscaler says “power” on the Q3 callOn the Q3 2026 earnings calls, all four of the largest hyperscalers reference power, electricity, or grid capacity as a constraint on capacity deployment.Open.
- 60 sessions to 30 NovUtilities trade with Tech, not with ratesFrom 22 Aug to 30 Nov 2026, the 60-day correlation of Utilities daily returns with Tech exceeds the 60-day correlation of Utilities with the inverse of the 10Y yield change, on the final session.Open. Live from the owned strip through 21 Aug 2026: 60-session corr(XLU, XLK) -0.25 vs corr(XLU, −Δ10Y) 0.17. Graded on the 30 Nov session.
- 83 sessions to 31 DecThe large-load queue grows againThe next published PJM and ERCOT large-load queue figures (expected Q4 2026) both show active large-load GW above the prior publication.Open. ERCOT baseline is 474 GW of large-load interconnection requests as of June 2026 (prior print 438 GW in May 2026). The next published ERCOT figure grades against 474. PJM last desk print is 60.1 GW (Sep 2025 LAS). Both legs must print after 22 Aug to grade.
- no dated clockHyperscalers become power companiesBefore the end of 2027, at least one major hyperscaler announces wholly-owned electricity generation for AI load, built and operated, not a purchase agreement.Open.
Resolved
What already closed.
Nothing has closed yet.
The first claims were published on 22 August 2026. The gold and volatility test is due on 4 September 2026.