The Claims
19 October · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
AST SpaceMobile sells a phone array while Starlink sells text
Is direct-to-phone broadband a product, or is the industry a SpaceX supplier list?
- 50 sessions to 31 DecAST names commercial D2D revenueAST discloses commercial (not beta, not USG-only) direct-to-device service revenue as a named line in a 2026 10-Q or 10-K.Open.
- 50 sessions to 31 DecAmazon Leo sells a consumer bandAmazon Leo consumer service is sold to the public in a named latitude band by 31 Dec 2026.Open.
- 110 sessions to 31 MarNew Glenn leaves Florida againNew Glenn return-to-flight with a named commercial payload (Amazon Leo or named peer) by 31 Mar 2027.Open.
- 173 sessions to 30 JunAST reaches a continuous planeAST SpaceMobile has at least 45 operational BlueBirds on orbit by 30 Jun 2027.Open.
- 173 sessions to 30 JunNeutron fliesRocket Lab Neutron completes first flight, not pad delivery, not static fire, by 30 Jun 2027.Open.
- 301 sessions to 31 DecThe bag leaves the trustThe EchoStar–SpaceX Spectrum Acquisition Closing (Trust to SpaceX, consideration paid) occurs by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 301 sessions to 31 DecSomeone pays rent on a commercial moduleA commercial free-flyer or Axiom-class module hosts a named, paid medical or pharma payload, not a ministry science locker, by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 301 sessions to 31 DecAmazon closes GlobalstarAmazon’s acquisition of Globalstar closes by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 301 sessions to 31 DecThe Iridium takeout closesRocket Lab’s acquisition of Iridium closes by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 301 sessions to 31 DecA space crystal enters a protocolUnited Therapeutics or a named partner discloses that a space-crystallized candidate has entered a clinical protocol by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 363 sessions to 30 MarAmazon hits the halfway plane or the penalty liftsAmazon reaches 1,618 operational Leo sats, or the FCC lifts the post-30-Jul-2026 Ka/Ku priority penalty, by 30 Mar 2028.Open.
- 426 sessions to 30 JunElveo sells a billElveo Mobile (or the Lynk/Omnispace successor) sells a commercial D2D service, not a trial, not a disaster SMS, in a named country by 30 Jun 2028.Open.
- 553 sessions to 31 DecA Flatellite returns tracksA Neutron-launched Flatellite is on orbit under SB-AMTI with a Space Force or company notice that the sensor is returning tracks, by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
- 553 sessions to 31 DecAn iPhone session rides a Leo D2D birdA supported iPhone session is carried on an Amazon Leo D2D satellite, not a Globalstar heritage bird, by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
Resolved