Hypotheses
Hypotheses
Friday 4 September · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
A satellite phone is not a dish
Is direct-to-phone broadband a product, or is the industry a SpaceX supplier list?
- 83 sessions to 31 DecAST names commercial D2D revenueAST discloses commercial (not beta, not USG-only) direct-to-device service revenue as a named line in a 2026 10-Q or 10-K.Open.
- 83 sessions to 31 DecAmazon Leo sells a consumer bandAmazon Leo consumer service is sold to the public in a named latitude band by 31 Dec 2026.Open.
- 147 sessions to 31 MarNew Glenn leaves Florida againNew Glenn return-to-flight with a named commercial payload (Amazon Leo or named peer) by 31 Mar 2027.Open.
- 212 sessions to 30 JunAST reaches a continuous planeAST SpaceMobile has at least 45 operational BlueBirds on orbit by 30 Jun 2027.Open.
- 212 sessions to 30 JunNeutron fliesRocket Lab Neutron completes first flight, not pad delivery, not static fire, by 30 Jun 2027.Open.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecThe bag leaves the trustThe EchoStar–SpaceX Spectrum Acquisition Closing (Trust to SpaceX, consideration paid) occurs by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecSomeone pays rent on a commercial moduleA commercial free-flyer or Axiom-class module hosts a named, paid medical or pharma payload, not a ministry science locker, by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecAmazon closes GlobalstarAmazon’s acquisition of Globalstar closes by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecThe Iridium takeout closesRocket Lab’s acquisition of Iridium closes by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 344 sessions to 31 DecA space crystal enters a protocolUnited Therapeutics or a named partner discloses that a space-crystallized candidate has entered a clinical protocol by 31 Dec 2027.Open.
- 408 sessions to 30 MarAmazon hits the halfway plane or the penalty liftsAmazon reaches 1,618 operational Leo sats, or the FCC lifts the post-30-Jul-2026 Ka/Ku priority penalty, by 30 Mar 2028.Open.
- 474 sessions to 30 JunElveo sells a billElveo Mobile (or the Lynk/Omnispace successor) sells a commercial D2D service, not a trial, not a disaster SMS, in a named country by 30 Jun 2028.Open.
- 605 sessions to 31 DecA Flatellite returns tracksA Neutron-launched Flatellite is on orbit under SB-AMTI with a Space Force or company notice that the sensor is returning tracks, by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
- 605 sessions to 31 DecAn iPhone session rides a Leo D2D birdA supported iPhone session is carried on an Amazon Leo D2D satellite, not a Globalstar heritage bird, by 31 Dec 2028.Open.
Resolved
What already closed.
Nothing has closed yet.
The first claims were published on 22 August 2026. The gold and volatility test is due on 4 September 2026.