Hypotheses
Hypotheses
Friday 4 September · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
- 60 sessions to 30 NovGovernment and academic stay above 60% of revenueOn the Q3 2026 prints, the revenue-weighted government plus academic share across the three largest listed pure-plays is above 60%, by the published classification rule.Open.
- 60 sessions to 30 NovRPO grows slower than revenue on the Q3 printsOn the Q3 2026 filings, for at least two of the three largest listed pure-plays by market cap, YoY RPO growth is below YoY revenue growth.Open.
- 212 sessions to 30 JunThe next re-rating is down, not upBetween 22 Aug 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, the equal-weighted basket of the three largest listed pure-plays underperforms the Nasdaq 100.Open. Grades from the stated sources when the window ends.
- no dated clockQuantum computation revenue stays negligibleNo publicly listed pure-play quantum company reports more than $100M of trailing-twelve-month computation revenue, excluding grants, consulting, and hardware one-offs, before 2028.Open.
Resolved
What already closed.
Nothing has closed yet.
The first claims were published on 22 August 2026. The gold and volatility test is due on 4 September 2026.