The Claims
19 October · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
Lilly sold 4,928 million of Zepbound in June against 98 million of Foundayo
If appetite-suppressing drugs keep scaling, what happens to everyone who sells calories?
- 28 sessions to 30 NovStaples outperform on risk-off sessions and underperform across the quarterFrom 22 Aug to 30 Nov 2026, Consumer Staples outperforms the S&P 500 on sessions where the S&P closes down more than 1%, and underperforms it over the full window.Open. From the owned strip through 1 Oct 2026: 0 risk-off sessions (S&P down more than 1%) so far; full window XLP −6.6% vs S&P +1.8%. Needs 5 qualifying sessions by 30 Nov 2026 to avoid a void; graded on the 30 Nov 2026 closes.
- 553 sessions to 31 DecVANQUISH names a primary readViking Therapeutics reports a primary weight-loss endpoint read from VANQUISH-1 or VANQUISH-2 in a public release before 31 Dec 2028.Open. Grades from the stated sources when the window ends.
- no dated clockSnack volumes go negative and stay thereUS packaged-snack volumes print four consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline before the end of 2027.Open.
Resolved