Hypotheses
Hypotheses
Friday 4 September · London & New York
Each one sits on a thesis. The date is when it gets graded. They are not calls.
Thesis
GLP-1s and the food chain
If appetite-suppressing drugs keep scaling, what happens to everyone who sells calories?
- clock 26 Aug expired · ungradedSJM guides volume flat-to-down and price holdsOn the 26 Aug 2026 print, SJM’s US Retail segments report YoY volume/mix at or below zero, and management’s full-year guide attributes sales growth to price/mix rather than volume.Open.
- 60 sessions to 30 NovStaples outperform on risk-off sessions and underperform across the quarterFrom 22 Aug to 30 Nov 2026, Consumer Staples outperforms the S&P 500 on sessions where the S&P closes down more than 1%, and underperforms it over the full window.Open. Both legs live on the owned strip: baseline is the 21 Aug 2026 close (XLP 85.99, S&P 7674.4); no window session has printed yet. Needs 5 sessions with the S&P down more than 1% to avoid a void.
- 605 sessions to 31 DecVANQUISH names a primary readViking Therapeutics reports a primary weight-loss endpoint read from VANQUISH-1 or VANQUISH-2 in a public release before 31 Dec 2028.Open. Grades from the stated sources when the window ends.
- no dated clockSnack volumes go negative and stay thereUS packaged-snack volumes print four consecutive quarters of year-over-year decline before the end of 2027.Open.
Resolved
What already closed.
Nothing has closed yet.
The first claims were published on 22 August 2026. The gold and volatility test is due on 4 September 2026.